There was an audible gasp in the room at the Council on Foreign Relations as Keith Kellogg, the special Envoy of the White House for Ukraine and Russia, characterized the US decision to cut off sharing intelligence and military assistance with Kyiv such as beating a farm field with a piece of wood.
“Very smart, they brought it to themselves, the Ukrainians,” Kellogg said as veterans diplomats, academics, and journalists in a surprise room. There are many hands on their faces. “I think the best way I can describe it is like hitting a mule with a two-four-four in the whole nose,” he continued. “You got their attention, and very important, obviously, because of the support we give.”
Falling into US-Ukraine relationships since the White House Summit Between Trump and Zelenskyy has become rugged. Those around Trump are viewed as the strongest supporters of Ukraine – including state secretary Marco Rubio, national security advisor Mike Waltz, and Kellogg – have become the skeptical voices of the US continued support or fully -bellined.
“We know that [the Maga wing] Just waiting for something they can use to make it, ”said a former US senior diplomat. “And I think where you got the posting of Rubio, Kellogg and even Waltz, which interferes with people who understand America’s interest in avoiding a Putin win in Ukraine.”
It was matched by an increase in people around Trump holding vocally eurosceptic views: Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson, and JD Vance, the vice-president who seized his moment at the Oval Office and urged a larger conflict between Trump and Zelenskyy.
Vance has made some major interventions intended to sow divisions in Europe. It appears that he is planning ahead. His team briefed European media before he spoke at Trump’s meeting with Keir Starmer to complain about “free speech violations” in the UK. And when Zelenskyy ignored the advice from Kellogg, Republican Senators, and others, did not fight Trump during the White House meeting, Vance poured fuel again.
“The first Zelenskyy needs to keep quiet in public about concerns over Trump’s policy moves, even though those concerns are justified,” said the former senior official. “It’s good for him to send a team to Riyadh’s meeting that is out of his level. I think he has to sign the mineral agreement in whatever form the Trump administration wants.”
Fiona Hill, a former White House officer in Trump’s first term, said the speculation -on the part of many European officials was “it was built by Vance … that he wanted to sneeze Rubios, the Waltzes, the Kelloggs.”
These should be adults in the room for this administration. Rubio confirmed 99-0 of senators who believe he can help monitor Trump’s foreign policy. It is hoped that Waltz is an ally of the cent as a national security advisor. And Kellogg, while the suspicion of Pabagu’s support for Kyiv, was seen as a stable supporter of Ukraine.
Instead, they followed Trump with pressure in Ukraine. Rubio said last week: “Frankly, this is a proxy war between nuclear powers – the United States, which helps Ukraine, and Russia – and needs to finish it.”
That was a vision that closely aligned with the Kremlins. Dmitry Peskov reacted positively to Rubio’s words, saying: “We can and want to say it, and we agree with it. That’s the way. Repeatedly -we said this. We said this is really a conflict between Russia and the collective west. And the main country of the Collective West is the United States of America.”
That is not the only way in which the US has adopted Russia’s views on war. In his speech, Kellogg broke the description of how Trump sees the conflict: the US wants to position himself as a neutral arbiter between Russia and Ukraine, and Trump recognizes that the US needs to “reset the relationship with Russia” to secure the national security of the United States. “The ongoing separation and lack of relationships with the Russians because the war in Ukraine continues is no longer a good approach,” he said.
That description is a radical realignment of interests in US policy in the conflict. For three years, Washington has provided great financial and military support to Kyiv to allow it to remain in the fight. But under a new Trump administration, those who supported the previous policy were quickly pivoted to I -back Trump as he sought to end the war by putting pressure on Ukraine.
“Kellogg has some people around him knowing what they are doing,” said Hill, who worked with him during Trump’s first term. “He’s 80 years old. He fought in Vietnam. He knows his belongings. He’s not a fan of Russia. He’s a total cold warrior. He tries to make the needle there but he also works for the leader’s leader, so he’s trying to interpret, in the best way he can, what’s going on here?
But Kellogg was left on the list for a major summit between Ukrainian and the US officers this week in Saudi Arabia in an attempt to fix the relationship. Waltz, Rubio, and Trump’s Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff are set to travel for talks with Zelenskyy’s staff leader Andriy Yermak and his team. The path forward is not clear-though both pro-Ukraine Americans and European officials believe there is no alternative to US support in the conflict.
European officials Zelenskyy and Trump officials hope to manage to hold a meeting that will not be destroyed in the open conflict. That could lead to a quick renewal of intelligence support, that European officials did not lose hope.
But there are greater discussions about whether the US remains a viable longerm partner for Ukraine. Today, the Ukrainian side has little options other than make changes.
