FRiedrich Merz, head of Germany’s right Christian Democratic Union Party (CDU) center, has a reputation for being dull. On Sunday night, as it was clear that the CDU won the snap election that was stunned by the outgoing social democrat chancellor Olaf Scholz, he was not disappointed. “For me,” Mr Merz said in a post-election television debate, “the full priority is to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible, step by step, we can achieve freedom from the USA. “
As recently as a twice ago, such a statement from a German Chancellor-elect was unimaginable. But these are new and extraordinary times. A convinced transatlanticist, Mr. Merz has previously played the dangers of Western unity of Donald Trump. But the crude election on behalf of the intense right alternative Für Deutschland (AFD) of US President’s outriders, and the European and Kyiv seizure from Ukraine’s future negotiations, forced a handbrake.
For the European Union, because it seeks to strengthen strategic autonomy in a new and challenging time, it’s good news. For Ukraine, with the desperate need of stable support from a United Europe, Mr Merz’s stable backbone also offers a reason for hope. The new assumption of leadership from the strongest EU member state will be key to a bright more menacing global context.
Inside the house, the reasons for optimism are thinner on the ground. As Mr. Merz acknowledged Monday, the weekend poll revealed a dangerous polarized country – one of which the center was weak in history while the remote right continued to explode, especially in the east. With a very high turnout, the AFD doubled its vote at 21%. The combined CDU score and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), is 29% – the second lowest since 1949. The Social Democrat Party (SPD) endures the worst postwar results, reduced to the third place and a sad 16%.
Mr. Merz has promised to maintain the firewall not including the far from power, and the makeup of new Bundestag points to a two coalition party along with the SPD. That could lead to a welcome motivation of CDU’s efforts to ape AFD’s positions on immigration policy. Instead of extending unsuccessful attempts to increase the right, it would be in Germany’s interest for Mr. Merz to move in the other economic direction.
The head of the CDU made his reputation in the 1990s as a small state with no relative to the Ronald Reagan Mold. But as Chancellor he inherits a Moribund economy that requires great government investment, at a time when the pressure raises the defense spending is also acute. The business model depends on Russia’s cheap energy and Chinese demand for exports has crushed. This organizing may require a push for the Constitutional reform to allow the state to borrow and spend more – anathema to many of Mr Merz’s party.
One in five German voters was selected on Sunday for a party that supports the forced recovery of migrants and is associated with Neo-Nazi dog-whistling. Funny, the AFD chooses great support for children as well as those who do not promote. Beyond the firewall, AFD leader Alice Weidel, could position himself as the leader of a government-in-waiting of Trumpian. The next administration should try to restore confidence in the German postwar tradition of consensus-developing and moderation. The stakes are hardly higher.
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